Ancona, August 26, 2026 — Heat is getting serious again in the Marche, with a new surge expected to push temperatures well above the seasonal average. The peak is expected between Thursday and Friday, when especially in the inland areas the thermometer could approach 40 degrees. Then, on Saturday, the arrival of cooler currents from the Atlantic will pave the way for showers and thunderstorms, sometimes intense locally, before a general temperature drop.
Taking stock of the evolution in the coming days is Danilo Tognetti, Amap meteorologist of the Marche Region: “From today until Friday the heat will return, with temperatures quite above normal — he explains — There will indeed be a temporary resurgence of the subtropical ridge, with warm air of North African origin directed towards the central Mediterranean and therefore also over Italy”.
Where it will reach 39 degrees
The origin of the new scorching phase is therefore once again to be found south of the Mediterranean: “The presence of a vortex north of the Iberian area will favor the draw of warm air from North Africa and this air mass will contribute to strengthening the anticyclone again. For this reason, we will have predominantly clear conditions and a rapid increase in temperatures,” explains Tognetti. In the Marche the rise will be particularly evident: “We could exceed 35 degrees and some models indicate values around 38-39 degrees in the inland areas of Urbino and Pesaro and also in the Ancona area”.
Heat intensified inland
The heat, moreover, could be further accentuated in the inland areas. “In those zones the heat can be amplified by the downslope winds from the Apennines. There will indeed be some ventilation and this will contribute to making the sensation of heat even more evident, especially inland,” adds the meteorologist. Until Friday, however, no significant precipitation is expected: “I do not foresee noteworthy showers before Friday, because until then the warm component of North African origin will clearly prevail”.
Saturday the change
The situation will change on Saturday, when the anticyclone will begin to weaken: “When the subtropical ridge starts to weaken, cooler currents from the Atlantic will enter. It will be these currents that trigger showers and thunderstorms, which on Saturday will tend to move from the Apennines towards the coasts and progressively from north to south,” explains Tognetti. The energy accumulated from the heat could make some phenomena intense: “The amount of heat present will be considerable and, if favorable conditions occur, the thunderstorms could also be strong. Hail cannot be excluded either, which could also affect coastal areas”.
Showers more likely from Macerata to Pesaro
It is impossible, however, to draw a precise line of the phenomena. “The risk basically concerns the entire regional territory, but increases moving towards the northern provinces. These are very localized phenomena, so it is difficult to establish exactly where they will hit,” specifies the meteorologist. The hilly and upper-hilly belt will be the most exposed, with a growing probability from Macerata towards Pesaro. “Thunderstorms can also occur in the southern provinces, especially in the inland areas.
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Fermo and Ascoli
On the coast of Fermo and Ascoli, instead, the possibility will be lower: “The Apennines, with their reliefs, represent an important barrier for the western currents that will bring precipitation”. After the thunderstorm episode, temperatures will return closer to the average: “Over the weekend a return of values towards normality is expected. In the areas affected by thunderstorms the drop could be even more evident, because the precipitation will help bring cooler air to the ground,” observes Tognetti.
Climates at the beginning of next week
Even the beginning of next week, at the moment, does not seem destined to bring back extreme heat: “On Monday and Tuesday we could have temperatures again slightly above average, but without the extremes of these days. Maximums could settle around 32-33 degrees, while minimums could drop below 20 degrees”. On the possible trend for September, however, caution prevails: “Seasonal models do not allow us to go that far with reliability. At the moment I do not see a real seasonal breaking point, but it is not possible to establish whether it will arrive in the first part of September or later. I therefore prefer not to make forecasts beyond what the models can actually support”. One thing, however, is certain: the sea remains very warm and will continue to provide energy to the phenomena. “Throughout September the sea will cool down slowly — concludes Tognetti — Consequently, when disturbances capable of interacting with this very warm water mass arrive, intense thunderstorms can develop”. Below are the forecasts from the Marche Region for the coming days.
Friday, August 28
The day will be predominantly clear or slightly cloudy, with a temporary passage of thin clouds. No precipitation is expected and temperatures will rise further, with minimum and maximum of 26 and 33 degrees in Ancona, 24 and 38 in Ascoli, 28 and 36 in Fermo, 28 and 38 in Macerata and Urbino, 27 and 34 in Pesaro. Winds will blow as a light or strong breeze from the southwest, rotating from the southeast along the coast in the afternoon. The sea will be almost calm, tending to slight waves in the afternoon.
Saturday, August 29
It will be the day of the change of scenario, with cloudy skies due to mid-high clouds and temporary cumulus build-ups. From the morning showers and thunderstorms are expected moving from the Apennines towards the coast and from north to south. The phenomena will subside from the afternoon starting from the northern sectors, ending in the evening in the central-southern areas. Temperatures decreasing, with minimum and maximum of 26 and 32 degrees in Ancona, 21 and 35 in Ascoli, 28 and 32 in Fermo, 29 and 34 in Macerata, 26 and 33 in Pesaro and 25 to 32 in Urbino. Winds of strong breeze or locally moderate southwesterly and slightly rough sea.
Sunday, August 30
The weather will become more stable, with clear or slightly cloudy skies and some temporary thin clouds. No precipitation is expected and temperatures will decrease further. Winds will blow as a breeze from the southwest quadrants, rotating along the coast first from the northern sectors and then from the southeast in the afternoon. Slightly rough sea.
