Tension rises in the Gulf. After the ninth consecutive night of US raids on Iran, between Sunday and Monday, Tehran responded by attacking US allies Kuwait and Bahrain, and striking another ship in Hormuz. Between Friday and Sunday, an average of 10 ships per day passed through the Strait, most following the route controlled by Iran. And now, with the Saudi maritime traffic blockade in the Red Sea – a halt that could affect over 3% of the global oil market – the situation risks escalating. So much so that, after the failure of the preliminary peace agreement in mid-June, Qatar proposed a 10-day ceasefire and the lifting of navigation restrictions in the Strait. This proposal is now under consideration by negotiators from Iran and the United States, aimed at easing tensions, primarily offering a breath of fresh air to global energy markets. Donald Trump, however, shows no sign of lowering the rhetoric and – faced with a death toll of 17 since the start of the conflict – announces a new directive: “Every time Iran kills an American soldier, it will pay for his death many times over!”
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Rome, July 20, 2026 – The first assessment comes from Ryanair’s accounts: more passengers, but less profit. In the April-June quarter, the company saw net profit fall by 34%, to 538 million euros, despite slightly higher revenues and traffic up 6% to 61.3 million travelers. The problem is the price: average fares dropped by 6%, because the Middle East conflict slowed bookings and forced the company to stimulate demand. At the same time, operating costs increased by 11% and uncovered fuel costs, accounting for 20% of needs, more than doubled, reaching 150 dollars per barrel. It is the paradox of war applied to air transport: in the short term, ticket prices can even fall, not because costs are lower, but because passengers book later, hesitate, change destinations, or postpone travel. Airlines, to fill planes, cut fares. But if the shock lasts, the dynamic reverses: more expensive fuel, longer routes, lower margins, and less available capacity push prices up. Even Ryanair did not provide an annual forecast, linking profit trends to bookings in the late summer. The war, in fact, does not only affect routes to the Middle East. It redraws the skies. Airspace closures and restrictions force many airlines to divert routes, especially between Europe and Asia, with longer travel times, more fuel consumed, crews engaged longer, and more fragile connections. For passengers, this means canceled or rescheduled flights, longer layovers, less predictable journeys. For carriers, it means more exposed financials and more cautious planning: already in spring Reuters described the crisis as the biggest challenge for European aviation since the pandemic, due to the combined effect of disrupted routes, more expensive jet fuel, and more cautious bookings. Ryanair is less dependent than major intercontinental airlines on Asian routes, but precisely for this reason its quarter is a broader signal: the crisis is also hitting short-haul European flights through fuel and consumer confidence. If a low-cost carrier with strong jet fuel hedging still sees profits fall, the problem is not confined to airlines more exposed to the Gulf. It is a systemic cost. For Italy, the transmission is direct. The uncertainties of the Middle East conflict make oil prices and fuel prices fluctuate, steadily above two euros even for highway gasoline since Friday the 17th. Brent surpasses 90 dollars per barrel after the ninth night of heavy US attacks in Iran, then reverses course with news of diplomatic efforts for a new truce.
Adding uncertainty to energy markets are the Yemeni Houthis who announced the Saudi maritime blockade. Gas hits a peak not seen since March on the Amsterdam market, 60 euros per megawatt-hour, then slows its rise and closes at 58.36 euros, up 1.7% from the last session. Fuels continue to rise. Gasoline reaches 2.025 euros on the highway in self-service mode and 1.935 on the road network, according to data from the Ministry of Enterprises Observatory. Diesel, meanwhile, reaches 2.164 euros on the highway and 2.091 on other roads, the highest since April.
