Macerata, July 31, 2026 – The fourth heat wave is arriving, with peaks up to 40 degrees and tropical nights. Professor Massimiliano Fazzini, climatologist and snow scientist at the University of Camerino as well as coordinator of the climate risk team of the Italian Society of Environmental Geology (Sigea), explains what is happening, between the African anticyclone and the risk of violent storms.
Professor, what should we expect in the coming weeks?
“We need to make a premise: weather forecasting can provide correct and significant information at most within 5-7 days and when the atmosphere is dynamic, as in recent months, the forecast range is even narrower, at 3-4 days. However, we can say with high reliability that from today until Tuesday the atmosphere will be increasingly stable due to a decisive expansion of the subtropical African anticyclone. This will cause strong sunshine with temperatures gradually rising above the climatic averages. We are facing the fourth heat wave of summer 2026.”
How long will it last?
“At the moment, medium-long term models indicate that this hot phase should extend until the first week of August. We could reach temperatures close to 40 degrees in the regional valley floors, such as the Vallesina (between the provinces of Ancona and Macerata, with Jesi as the center, ed.) and the Val Potenza, warmer than the Chienti valley. The phenomenon of tropical nights will be widespread across almost the entire provincial territory.”
What are the causes of the intensity and duration of this heat wave?
“We are indeed once again facing an expansion of the African anticyclone. This type of weather, extremely rare until ten years ago, is increasingly frequent during the summer season and therefore is clear evidence of the ongoing climate change. Statistics tell us that such phenomena are becoming more frequent and intense.”
Is there already a drought alarm and water emergency?
“Thanks to the abundant precipitation that occurred in the spring months, the level of the main artificial foothill basins does not yet show a worrying signal, unlike the last three summers. However, in case of persistent absence of precipitation, the situation could quickly deteriorate.”
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In which areas of the province will the highest and lowest temperatures be recorded?
“Peaks of 40 degrees are expected in the area between Tolentino, San Severino, and Macerata: this is known to be the hottest area. Minimum temperatures below 20 degrees, instead, above 1000 meters altitude, for example in Bolognola or Ussita, where the nights will be mild.”
Downpours with hail and sultry heat. What is happening?
“Climate extremization is the clearest evidence of ongoing climate change, an irrefutable proof. Thunderstorms, strong gusts of wind, and hailstorms are the most characteristic phenomena of this extremization. The atmosphere is characterized by enormous amounts of thermal energy and, consequently, nature tends to return to a state of calm through violent phenomena.”
When will summer end?
“Climatology, in the last twenty years, tells us that summer starts 10-15 days later compared to the end of the last century. But it ends about a month later, towards the end of September. So the chances of having phases with above-average temperatures extend temporally until this period. Now autumn begins in early October. Whereas before, from September 10-15, the hot phases were no longer present, now they last until the end of the month. Summer has lengthened, postponing both the start and the end.”
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