Bologna, August 2, 2026 – The hottest week of the summer begins. From Monday, August 3 to Friday, August 7, in fact, Emilia-Romagna is expected to experience intense days with maximum temperatures generally above 37-38 degrees. This has prompted the regional civil protection, based on Arpae forecasts (Regional Agency for Prevention, Environment and Energy of Emilia-Romagna), to issue a new notice reporting an orange alert for extreme temperatures in some areas of the provinces of Parma, Reggio Emilia, Modena and Ferrara; and a yellow alert for the entire territory. But there will be a slowdown by the weekend.
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Monday, August 3: temperatures around 38 degrees
For Monday, August 3, high maximum temperatures are expected to persist, around 38 degrees or locally higher, in the plains and first hill areas with widespread bioclimatic discomfort conditions. Furthermore, according to Arpae weather forecasts, scattered short-lived thunderstorms are not excluded, more likely along the Apennine ridge, with possible occasional associated effects. Therefore, alert throughout Emilia-Romagna from Piacenza to Rimini.
An entire region affected by intense heat conditions, with possible health effects, especially for the elderly, children, vulnerable people, and those with chronic illnesses.
Intense heat until Thursday, August 6: the weather trend
This is just the beginning of this exceptional heatwave. For Tuesday, August 4, maximum temperatures will reach between 33 and 36 degrees on the coast and up to 39-40 degrees in the central-western plains, with widespread bioclimatic discomfort conditions.
Here are the updated forecasts for the following days, according to Arpae models: “an anticyclonic field of African origin will ensure stable and sunny weather until Thursday, August 6, except for scattered daytime thunderstorms along the Apennine ridge. Starting from Friday, August 7, the circulation will increasingly be influenced by upper-level Atlantic currents bringing a slight drop in temperatures and scattered showers.”
On Wednesday, August 5 and Thursday, August 6, maximum temperatures will reach around 40 degrees in the plains, with widespread bioclimatic discomfort conditions, then decrease starting Friday, August 7.
Ferragosto ‘breaking point’ of the summer: the 2026 forecast
In popular tradition, but also statistically, mid-August often coincides with the first real breaking point of the summer. It is no coincidence that “Ferragosto is the head of winter.” But this summer 2026, exceptionally hot, could contradict this tradition. Temperatures are expected to persist above normal values, although with a less pronounced anomaly compared to the previous period.
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According to Arpae’s analysis based on the ECMWF monthly forecast system, the influence of the high subtropical pressure should gradually weaken with the possibility that at times humid and unstable Atlantic flows may affect the region.
Therefore, some precipitation with quantities within the seasonal average will be possible.
Anomalous heat: temperatures above historical period
On August 1, the average daily temperature in the region was 29 degrees, a figure representing the historical maximum since 1991. A record that could already be surpassed tomorrow: an average of 29.3 degrees expected.
The main consequence of the heatwave will be widespread conditions of bioclimatic discomfort, favored both by high daytime temperatures and by the poor attenuation of heat during the night.
Medium-term model analyses indicate, for the first full week of August, average temperatures about 5 degrees higher than climatological values. In the following weeks (from the 10th onward), a possible attenuation of the anomaly is expected.
The fourth heatwave in Italy: 25 red alerts from Monday, August 3
The fourth heatwave of the summer shows a continuously rising trend. The 25 red alerts expected on Monday (Ancona, Bari, Bologna, Bolzano, Brescia, Cagliari, Campobasso, Catania, Civitavecchia, Florence, Frosinone, Genoa, Latina, Milan, Naples, Palermo, Perugia, Pescara, Rieti, Rome, Turin, Trieste, Venice, Verona, and Viterbo) represent the highest peak reached so far, following a scorching weekend with peaks of 40 degrees.
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