Bologna, July 12, 2026 – The heatwave shows no signs of relief. A scorching start to the week is expected: for tomorrow, Monday, July 13, Arpae forecasts maximum temperatures around 36 degrees. Just a preview of what awaits the people of Emilia-Romagna on Tuesday, when maximum temperatures in the plains are expected to reach 39 degrees in some areas.
Between Wednesday, July 15 and Thursday, July 16, the heat should give relief: after an initial decrease, temperatures will remain stable.
The summer of 2026 is shaping up to be a record-breaking summer, or almost. “There are many records from previous summers that we meteorologists are keeping an eye on,” confirms Pierluigi Randi, president of Ampro, the Association of Professional Meteorologists.
President, when talking about temperature records, the mind immediately goes to 2003: will the summer of 2026 break that bar as well?
“Considering the period from June 1 to July 11, 2026 is already ahead. It all depends on how July and August will develop. The latter, according to models, seems to be slightly more lenient, but these are hypotheses with many uncertainties. As for July, it is likely that we will not see significant temperature drops. The storm in recent hours has had almost no cooling effect: it was not the passage of a true cold air front, but a modest upper-level cell. From Thursday, the situation could improve, partly because the mass of hot air that will make the south, Sardinia, and more generally the Tyrrhenian regions scorching, will only brush Emilia-Romagna. In 2003, we experienced monstrously hot June and August, while July was slightly milder. July 2026, however, forces us to consider the possibility of a record-breaking summer.”
Tropical nights and ‘supertropical’ nights
What other records are about to fall?
“This year we have already counted more than twenty tropical nights, including several definable as ‘supertropical,’ meaning nights when the temperature never dropped below 25 degrees: an unprecedented scenario. The record for tropical nights belongs to the summer of 2024, when in some parts of Emilia-Romagna, such as Forlì, about 55 were counted.”
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Speaking of individual maximums, will the mercury rise beyond the records of August 4, 2017?
“It is difficult to predict if there will be a hotter day during the summer: in Forlì, the Air Force recorded temperatures of 43 degrees. It was a memorable moment: in a huge area of the region, temperatures exceeded 40 degrees. One aspect must be emphasized: at that time – and we are talking about just nine years ago – we were talking about single record-breaking days. This summer, however, is characterized by being uniformly hot, with temperatures that give no relief for 24 hours.”
How did ‘supertropical’ nights come about?
“The mechanism originates over the sea: when currents coming from the Adriatic are very humid, at night the temperature tends to drop less. To have some relief, a real disturbance would be needed, with showers of 50 millimeters spread over two days. But there is nothing like that on the horizon.”
Soil evapotranspiration is also unprecedented
Is drought and the Po River levels the most worrying element? In Emilia-Romagna about 30% is lost before reaching the taps.
“Water supply is an issue we must consider very carefully, and not only because of the lack of rain: these temperatures cause evapotranspiration in the soil of 8 or 9 millimeters per day (one millimeter corresponds to one liter of water per square meter, ed): these are values hardly imaginable before the climate crisis. Add to this the fact that the snow deposited on the Alps this winter melted very quickly: by May, we had somehow already exhausted our water ‘bonus’.”
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